Center for Analysis and Design of Intelligent Agents

This is an old revision of the document!

Philosophy of Science II

Concepts

Induction (ísl. aðleiðsla)	A generalization from a set of observations. Generalization can be about a class of observed phenomena or about a particular unobserved phenomenon that is part of the class. Considered a key to the advancement of scientific knowledge. The ability of individuals and groups to create “coherent stories” of how phenomena in the world are connected, and produce rigorous models that support the stories, is a necessary condition for scientific progress.
Scientific theory (ísl. vísindakenning)
Prediction, predictive powers (ísl. forspá, forsagnargildi)	A good theory can explain and predict
The value and power of a scientific theory	Measured by (a) its ability to explain, (b) its ability to to be withstand attempts to falsify it and © its ability to predict.
Scientific theories in the natural sciences	Build on comparative experiments as primary method of investigation. Comparative experiments are attempts to falsification; they test the predicitive power of theories. Results are used to tune the theory.

Falsification

Prediction and falsification: opposite ends of the same dimension	A theory's strength can be measured at least in two ways, (a) by its power to predict and (b) by its ability to withstand attempts to falsification.

Induction is not Enough: Refutability of Scientific Theories

Karl Popper	“Induction” as a process for producing scientific theories, does not exist in the form proposed.
Popperian extremism	While we can say that Popper was an extremist when it comes to his discussion of theories, we can agree with him that the role of science is to come up with theories that are falsifiable.
Popper's favorite examples of pseudotheories	Sigmund Freud and Karl Marx
Karl Marx's economic theory	The rich will be richer and the poor poorer - the path of the West?
Popper's idealism	We cannot simply take the last 100 or 200 years of natural science as the ideal of science and assume that anything that doesn't look like it is psudo-science. That would be ignoring at least 2000 years of what Popper would call psudo-science: Philosophical beginnings of all scientific fields.
Scientific methods (and fields) evolve from early philosophical considerations	All sciences have begun as speculations. Math was developed to help with managing complexities in the natural sciences; we need other, more powerful tools for some of the remaining problems.
Darwin's theory of evolution	According to a large proportion of modern scientists in all fields, Darwin is the greatest scientist of the last milennium. Because his theory is not falsifiable it would rank high on Popper's list of bad scientific theories.
Freud	An important thing to keep in mind is not to let egos and personal admiration get in the way of critical thought. Perhaps it may be justified that Freudian methods are still being used in clinical treatment of mental patients, but perhaps not: We should let the numbers, as produced by comparative experiments and comparative studies, tell us whether these methods are worth holding on to. (If such comparative studies are too expensive to do properly, perhaps we should value mental sanity more!)
Freud and Marx: twilight zone	These teachings sit somewhere between philosophy and a mature science. (Freud was one of the first major names to put forth the idea that the mind has parts.) As with all philosophy and science one must look at what they said when they said it and put aside idealism and personal admiration.
Simulations	Only recently have we developed a tool that are powerful enough to study many of the phenomena that we experience every day, such as the mechanisms of commerce, the forces of the cosmos, the mysteries of thought. That tool is simulation.

The Importance of Creativity

Creativity in Science	No good theory exists without the creative activity of a human! Creativity is one of the main driving forces of science.
The role of induction	In an effort to make the creative process more “objective” or “rule-like”, philosophers and scientist have often argued that the main ingredient is “induction”, which follows logically from a number of observations. This view ignores the creative component of scientific work and may be responsible for why science education is in many cases taught in a boring fashion.

EOF