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public:t-719-nxai:nxai-25:empirical-reasoning [2025/04/27 13:59] – [Probability] thorisson | public:t-719-nxai:nxai-25:empirical-reasoning [2025/04/27 17:03] (current) – [REQUIRED READINGS] thorisson |
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====READINGS==== | ====REQUIRED READINGS==== |
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| * [[https://cis-linux1.temple.edu/~pwang/Publication/learning.pdf|The Logic of Learning]] by P. Wang |
| * [[https://www.iiim.is/wp/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/wang-agisp-2011.pdf|Behavioral Self-Programming by Reasoning]] by P. Wang |
| * [[https://philosophynow.org/issues/106/Critical_Reasoning|Critical Reasoning]] by M. Talbot |
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| Related readings: |
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====Causation & AI==== | ====Causation & AI==== |
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| Correlation Supports Prediction | Correlation is sufficient for simple prediction (if <m>A</m> and <m>B</m> correlate highly, then it does not matter if we see an <m>A</m> //OR// a <m>B</m>, we can predict that the other is likely on the scene). | | | Correlation Supports Prediction | Correlation is sufficient for simple prediction (if A and B correlate highly, then it does not matter if we see an A //OR// a B, we can predict that the other is likely on the scene). | |
| \\ Knowledge of Causation Supports Action | We may know that <m>A</m> and <m>B</m> correlate, but if we don't know whether <m>B</m> is a result of <m>A</m> or vice versa, and we want <m>B</m> to disappear, we don't know whether it will suffice to modify <m>A</m>. \\ //Example: The position of the light switch and the state of the light bulb correlate. Only by knowing that the light switch controls the bulb can we go directly to the switch if we want the light to turn on. // | | | \\ Knowledge of Causation Supports Action | We may know that A and B correlate, but if we don't know whether B is a result of A or vice versa, and we want B to disappear, we don't know whether it will suffice to modify A. \\ //Example: The position of the light switch and the state of the light bulb correlate. Only by knowing that the light switch controls the bulb can we go directly to the switch if we want the light to turn on. // | |
| **Causal Models** \\ Are Necessary To Guide Action | While correlation gives us indication of causation, the direction of the "causal arrow" is critically necessary for guiding action. \\ Luckily, knowing which way the arrows point in any large set of correlated variables is usually not too hard to find out, by empirical experimentation. | | | **Causal Models** \\ Are Necessary To Guide Action | While correlation gives us indication of causation, the direction of the "causal arrow" is critically necessary for guiding action. \\ Luckily, knowing which way the arrows point in any large set of correlated variables is usually not too hard to find out, by empirical experimentation. | |
| Judea Pearl | Most Fervent Advocate of causality in AI, and the inventor of the Do Calculus. \\ C.f. [[https://ftp.cs.ucla.edu/pub/stat_ser/r284-reprint.pdf|BAYESIANISM AND CAUSALITY, OR, WHY I AM ONLY A HALF-BAYESIAN]]. | | | Judea Pearl | Most Fervent Advocate of causality in AI, and the inventor of the Do Calculus. \\ C.f. [[https://ftp.cs.ucla.edu/pub/stat_ser/r284-reprint.pdf|BAYESIANISM AND CAUSALITY, OR, WHY I AM ONLY A HALF-BAYESIAN]]. | |