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| public:t-713-mers:mers-25:concepts_terms [2025/08/19 12:16] – [Reasoning] thorisson | public:t-713-mers:mers-25:concepts_terms [2025/08/19 12:27] (current) – [Correlation, Knowledge, Causation] thorisson |
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| ====Correlation, Knowledge, Causation==== | ====Correlation, Knowledge, Causation==== |
| | Correlation | Some factors/variables co-vary when changes in one variable are related with changes in the other, negative or positive. | | | Correlation | Some factors/variables co-vary when changes in one variable are related with changes in the other, negative or positive. | |
| | Correlation: Powerful source of information | Any variables in the world can be measured for correlation (i.e. to see if they are correlated). Only two variables are needed (independent and dependent) for doing correlation studies. | | | Correlation: Powerful source of information | Any variables in the world can be measured for correlation (i.e. to see if they are correlated). Only two variables are needed (independent and dependent) for doing correlation studies. | |
| | Main operating principle behind correlation | There is no causation without correlation. \\ BUT: It is not guaranteed to be measurable. | | | Main operating principle behind correlation | There is no causation without correlation. \\ BUT: It is not guaranteed to be measurable. | |
| | Correlation: Pitfall | Correlation does not imply causation between the variables measured! \\ BUT: ALL correlation that is NOT a coincidence has a cause. | | | Correlation: Pitfall | Correlation does not imply causation between the variables measured! \\ BUT: ALL correlation that is NOT a coincidence has a cause. | |
| | | Modeling Correlation | A model that makes use of observed correlation between A and B is only good for prediction, not for manipulation; to be useful for manipulation (goal-directed behavior and planning) it must include the causal direction of the relationship between A and B. | |
| | | Causal Relations are Invisible | Causal relations do not jump out at us when we observe something unfamiliar because the cause and effect are "spread out" over time -- cause-effect happens over time, as the cause must happen before the effect. | |
| | | Modeling Cause-Effect | Intelligent agents can model cause and effect with many methods; two of them are invention (coming up with a wild idea for the relationship betweeen A and B, e.g. that spirits make people sick) and discovery (through observation and experimentation with A and B, e.g. that unclean surgical knives can bring disease-carrying material between people). | |
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| | What is Reasoning? | A systematic way of considering statements and their implications. | | | What is Reasoning? | A systematic way of considering statements and their implications. | |
| | How is it done? | Via processes that observe rules. | | | How is it done? | Via processes that observe rules, called "reasoning processes". | |
| | What are \\ the main reasoning \\ process types? | **Deduction**: All men are mortal. Socrates is a man. Hence, Socrates is mortal \\ **Abduction**: How did this come about? (Sherlock Holmes) \\ **Induction**: What is the general rule? \\ **Analogy**: 'This' is like 'that' (in 'this' way). | | | What are \\ the main reasoning \\ process types? | **Deduction**: All men are mortal. Socrates is a man. Hence, Socrates is mortal \\ **Abduction**: How did this come about? (Sherlock Holmes) \\ **Induction**: What is the general rule? \\ **Analogy**: 'This' is like 'that' (in 'this' way). | |
| | How are they used \\ in science? | In empirical science to unearth the "rules of the universe". \\ In mathematics as axioms. \\ In philosophy as a way to construct arguments. \\ In computer science to write code. | | | How are they used \\ in science? | In empirical science to unearth the "rules of the universe". \\ In mathematics as axioms. \\ In philosophy as a way to construct arguments. \\ In computer science to write code. | |
| | A scientific theory gives us the big picture | A good scientific theory relates together, in a coherent way, some part of the world -- in general the bigger the part, the better the theory. | | | A scientific theory gives us the big picture | A good scientific theory relates together, in a coherent way, some part of the world -- in general the bigger the part, the better the theory. | |
| | Occam's Razor | A good scientific theory cannot be simplified; it is the shortest and most accurate explanation of a phenomenon. Einstein is quoted as saying: "A theory should be as simple as possible, but not simpler". | | | Occam's Razor | A good scientific theory cannot be simplified; it is the shortest and most accurate explanation of a phenomenon. Einstein is quoted as saying: "A theory should be as simple as possible, but not simpler". | |
| | A scientific theory can be **disproven** | A scientific theory or hypothesis is a statement that is //disprovable//. To count as "scientific" a theory //must// be disprovable. For this there must exist some measures and actions that are //possible// (in theory, but better yet, practic) whose results would possibly - should the measurements come out a particular way - disprove the theory. \\ Applying this criterion strictly means that //all scientific theories to date have been disproven - i.e. proven incorrect.// \\ This is not a bug but a //**feature!**:// Exposing the limits of our theories by demonstrating in which contexts they are incorrect allows us to come up with better theories. | | | \\ A scientific theory can be **disproven** | A scientific theory or hypothesis is a statement that is //disprovable//. To count as "scientific" a theory //must// be disprovable. For this there must exist some measures and actions that are //possible// (in theory, but better yet, practic) whose results would possibly - should the measurements come out a particular way - disprove the theory. \\ Applying this criterion strictly means that //all scientific theories to date have been disproven - i.e. proven incorrect.// \\ This is not a bug but a //**feature!**:// Exposing the limits of our theories by demonstrating in which contexts they are incorrect allows us to come up with better theories. | |
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