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--- public:t-709-aies-2024:aies-2024:futurology [2024/10/31 15:06] – thorisson
+++ public:t-709-aies-2024:aies-2024:futurology [2024/11/04 14:49] (current) – [Automating Intelligence] thorisson
@@ Line 13: / Line 13: @@
 ==== Futurology ====
-|  What it is  | Systematic prediction of what may happen in the future, and when.      |
+|  What it is  | Futurology is what we call "studying the future".  \\ Systematic prediction of what may happen in the future, and when.      |
 |  Why it matters  | Allows preparation for what may come.      |
 |  How it Works  | A bit like quantum physics: You can either say **what** will happen, or **when** something might happen, but not both at the same time.      |
 |  The Next 20 Years  | To understand how AI may impact ethical concerns, and what the ethics of AI will become, we must look to the future. \\ That, however, calls for a crystal ball.   |
 |  Further Readings  | [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_studies#:~:text=%22Futurology%22%20is%20defined%20as%20the,a%20new%20science%20of%20probability.|Futures Studies]] on Wikipedia    |
-|  Our Crystal Ball  | Futurology is what we call "studying the future". \\ We can arm ourselves with \\ 1. Remaining open questions in AI. \\ 2. Understanding the drivers of "progress". \\ 3. Identifying and mapping out key causal factors of change.     |
+\\
+\\
+==== Crystal Ball ====
+|  Our Crystal Ball  | is composed of parts that allow studying certain key factors in isolation.   ||
+| | We can arm ourselves with: ||
+| |  1.  | Remaining open questions in AI. |
+| |  2.  | Understanding the drivers of "progress".   |
+| |  3.  | Identifying and mapping out key causal factors of change.     |
+|  And  | use them to dissect, study, and analyze their nature, behavior, and interaction.    ||
 \\
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 |  #1:  | Rate of progress in automation through AI depends on rate of progress of basic research in AI ||
 |  #2:  | Rate of progress in AI basic research depends on when these four mental processes will be automated:   ||
-| |  | **General autonomous learning**     |
+| |  a.  | **General autonomous learning**     |
-| |  | **Empirical reasoning** over autonomously learned knowledge     |
+| |  b.  | **Empirical reasoning** over autonomously learned knowledge     |
-| |    | Creative autonomous **goal generation and management**     |
+| |  c.  | Creative autonomous **goal generation and management**     |
+| |  d.  | All three **unified in a single system**    |
 |  #3:  | Automation with AI will be at least as impactful as automation in the last industrial revolution. ||
@@ Line 41: / Line 54: @@
 |  Prerequisites  | Fundamental knowledge about how to automate intelligence is a pre-requisite for applying automated intelligence government, business, health industry, and all other areas of life.    |
 |  Home of Basic Research  | Basic research is primarily performed in academia.  \\ Hence: progress in the application of AI depends on progress of basic research in academia.   |
-|  "Speed of Progress"  |  The speed of basic research depends on human ingenuity, funding, enabling factors.   |
+|  "Rate of Progress"  |  The speed of basic research depends on human ingenuity, funding, enabling factors.   |
 \\
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 \\
-{{http://cadia.ru.is/wiki/_media/future-march-of-ai.jpg}}
+{{/public:t-709-aies:future-march-of-ai.png}}
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 \\
-==== The AI revolution, Fourth Industrial Revolution ====
+==== The Fourth Industrial Revolution is the AI revolution ====
 |  4th Industrial Revolution  | Has just begun.   |