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--- public:t-709-aies-2024:aies-2024:futurology [2024/10/31 13:53] – ["Rate of Progress"] thorisson
+++ public:t-709-aies-2024:aies-2024:futurology [2024/11/04 14:49] (current) – [Automating Intelligence] thorisson
@@ Line 13: / Line 13: @@
 ==== Futurology ====
-|  What it is  | Systematic prediction of what may happen in the future, and when.      |
+|  What it is  | Futurology is what we call "studying the future".  \\ Systematic prediction of what may happen in the future, and when.      |
 |  Why it matters  | Allows preparation for what may come.      |
 |  How it Works  | A bit like quantum physics: You can either say **what** will happen, or **when** something might happen, but not both at the same time.      |
+|  The Next 20 Years  | To understand how AI may impact ethical concerns, and what the ethics of AI will become, we must look to the future. \\ That, however, calls for a crystal ball.   |
 |  Further Readings  | [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_studies#:~:text=%22Futurology%22%20is%20defined%20as%20the,a%20new%20science%20of%20probability.|Futures Studies]] on Wikipedia    |
+\\
+\\
+==== Crystal Ball ====
+|  Our Crystal Ball  | is composed of parts that allow studying certain key factors in isolation.   ||
+| | We can arm ourselves with: ||
+| |  1.  | Remaining open questions in AI. |
+| |  2.  | Understanding the drivers of "progress".   |
+| |  3.  | Identifying and mapping out key causal factors of change.     |
+|  And  | use them to dissect, study, and analyze their nature, behavior, and interaction.    ||
 \\
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 |  #1:  | Rate of progress in automation through AI depends on rate of progress of basic research in AI ||
 |  #2:  | Rate of progress in AI basic research depends on when these four mental processes will be automated:   ||
-| |  | **General autonomous learning**     |
+| |  a.  | **General autonomous learning**     |
-| |  | **Empirical reasoning** over autonomously learned knowledge     |
+| |  b.  | **Empirical reasoning** over autonomously learned knowledge     |
-| |    | Creative autonomous **goal generation and management**     |
+| |  c.  | Creative autonomous **goal generation and management**     |
+| |  d.  | All three **unified in a single system**    |
 |  #3:  | Automation with AI will be at least as impactful as automation in the last industrial revolution. ||
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 |  Prerequisites  | Fundamental knowledge about how to automate intelligence is a pre-requisite for applying automated intelligence government, business, health industry, and all other areas of life.    |
 |  Home of Basic Research  | Basic research is primarily performed in academia.  \\ Hence: progress in the application of AI depends on progress of basic research in academia.   |
-|  "Speed of Progress"  |  The speed of basic research depends on human ingenuity, funding, enabling factors.   |
+|  "Rate of Progress"  |  The speed of basic research depends on human ingenuity, funding, enabling factors.   |
 \\
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 |  What it Means  | Essentially means the speed of “creating new knowledge”.  |
-|  Creating New Knowledge  | Main producer of new knowledge is **systematized research** - applied and basic. \\ Scientific/technological research uses a system based on addressing forward-looking questions, from simple (how can we manufacture this faster?) to extremely difficult - curing cancer, implementing intelligent machines, understanding the cosmos.   |
+|  Creating New Knowledge  | Main producer of new knowledge is **systematized research** - applied and basic. \\ Scientific/technological research uses a system based on addressing forward-looking questions, from simple, e.g. how to manufacture something faster, to extremely difficult - curing cancer, implementing intelligent machines, understanding the cosmos.   |
 |  Basic research  | Primary focus on fundamental questions. \\ Basic research in AI: Automating more (human) thought processes.  |
 |  Applied research  | Primarily profit-, control-driven.  \\ Applied research in AI: Applying thinking machines to practical tasks.  |
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 \\
-{{http://cadia.ru.is/wiki/_media/future-march-of-ai.jpg}}
+{{/public:t-709-aies:future-march-of-ai.png}}
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 \\
-==== The AI revolution, Fourth Industrial Revolution ====
+==== The Fourth Industrial Revolution is the AI revolution ====
 |  4th Industrial Revolution  | Has just begun.   |