# Center for Analysis and Design of Intelligent Agents

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public:rem4:rem4-20:philosophy_of_science_ii [2020/01/13 11:39]
thorisson
public:rem4:rem4-20:philosophy_of_science_ii [2020/01/20 15:18] (current)
thorisson [Induction is not Enough: Refutability of Scientific Theories]
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==== Concepts ==== ==== Concepts ====

-|  Induction \\ (ísl. aðleiðsla) | A generalization from a set of observations. \\ Generalization can be about a class of observed phenomena or about a particular unobserved phenomenon that is part of the class. \\ Considered a key to the advancement of scientific knowledge.   | +|  Induction \\ (ísl. aðleiðsla)  | A generalization from a set of observations. \\ Generalization can be about a class of observed phenomena or about a particular unobserved phenomenon that is part of the class. \\ Considered a key to the advancement of scientific knowledge.   |
-|  Scientific theory \\ (ísl. vísindakenning) | “A set of statements or principles devised to explain a group of facts or phenomena, especially one that has been repeatedly tested or is widely accepted and can be used to make predictions about natural phenomena.”  |+|  Scientific theory \\ (ísl. vísindakenning)  | “A set of statements or principles devised to explain a group of facts or phenomena, especially one that has been repeatedly tested or is widely accepted and can be used to make predictions about natural phenomena.”  |
|  Prediction, predictive powers (ísl. forspá, forsagnargildi)  | A good theory can explain and predict. (More on this below.)   |  |  Prediction, predictive powers (ísl. forspá, forsagnargildi)  | A good theory can explain and predict. (More on this below.)   |
|  The value and power of a scientific theory  | Measured by (a) its ability to explain, (b) its ability to to be withstand attempts to falsify it and (c) its ability to predict.  | |  The value and power of a scientific theory  | Measured by (a) its ability to explain, (b) its ability to to be withstand attempts to falsify it and (c) its ability to predict.  |
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|  Popperian extremism  | While we can say that Popper was an extremist when it comes to his discussion of theories, we can agree with him that the role of science is to come up with theories that are falsifiable.  |  |  Popperian extremism  | While we can say that Popper was an extremist when it comes to his discussion of theories, we can agree with him that the role of science is to come up with theories that are falsifiable.  |
|  Popper's favorite examples of pseudotheories  | Sigmund Freud's and Karl Marx's  | |  Popper's favorite examples of pseudotheories  | Sigmund Freud's and Karl Marx's  |
-|  Karl Marx's economic theory | The rich will be richer and the poor poorer ( - the path of the West?)   |+|  Karl Marx's economic theory  | The rich will be richer and the poor poorer ( - the path of the West?)   |
|  Popper's idealism  | We cannot simply take the last 100 or 200 years of natural science as the ideal of science and assume that anything that doesn't look like it is psudo-science. That would be ignoring at least 2000 years of what Popper would call psudo-science: Philosophical beginnings of all scientific fields.  | |  Popper's idealism  | We cannot simply take the last 100 or 200 years of natural science as the ideal of science and assume that anything that doesn't look like it is psudo-science. That would be ignoring at least 2000 years of what Popper would call psudo-science: Philosophical beginnings of all scientific fields.  |
|  Scientific methods (and fields) evolve from early philosophical considerations  | All sciences have begun as speculations. Math was developed to help with managing complexities in the natural sciences; we need other, more powerful tools for some of the remaining problems.  | |  Scientific methods (and fields) evolve from early philosophical considerations  | All sciences have begun as speculations. Math was developed to help with managing complexities in the natural sciences; we need other, more powerful tools for some of the remaining problems.  |
|  Darwin's theory of evolution  | According to a large proportion of modern scientists in all fields, Darwin is the greatest scientist of the last milennium. Because his theory is not falsifiable it would rank high on Popper's list of **bad** scientific theories.  | |  Darwin's theory of evolution  | According to a large proportion of modern scientists in all fields, Darwin is the greatest scientist of the last milennium. Because his theory is not falsifiable it would rank high on Popper's list of **bad** scientific theories.  |
-|  Freud  | An important thing to keep in mind is not to let egos and personal admiration get in the way of critical thought. Perhaps it may be justified that Freudian methods are still being used in clinical treatment of mental patients, but perhaps not: We should let the numbers, as produced by comparative experiments and comparative studies, tell us whether these methods are worth holding on to. (If such comparative studies are too expensive to do properly, perhaps we should value mental sanity more!)  | +|  \\ Freud  | An important thing to keep in mind is not to let egos and personal admiration get in the way of critical thought. Perhaps it may be justified that Freudian methods are still being used in clinical treatment of mental patients, but perhaps not: We should let the numbers, as produced by comparative experiments and comparative studies, tell us whether these methods are worth holding on to. (If such comparative studies are too expensive to do properly, perhaps we should value mental sanity more!)  |
-|  Freud and Marx: twilight zone   | These teachings sit somewhere between philosophy and a mature science. (Freud was one of the first major names to put forth the idea that the mind has parts.) As with all philosophy and science one must look at what they said when they said it and put aside idealism and personal admiration.   |+|  Freud and Marx:  \\ twilight zone  | These teachings sit somewhere between philosophy and a mature science. (Freud was one of the first major names to put forth the idea that the mind has parts.) As with all philosophy and science one must look at what they said when they said it and put aside idealism and personal admiration.   |
|  Simulation  | Only recently have we developed a tool that are powerful enough to study many of the phenomena that we experience every day, such as the mechanisms of commerce, the forces of the cosmos, the mysteries of thought. That tool is computer simulation.  | |  Simulation  | Only recently have we developed a tool that are powerful enough to study many of the phenomena that we experience every day, such as the mechanisms of commerce, the forces of the cosmos, the mysteries of thought. That tool is computer simulation.  |